摘要： In order to comprehend temporal pattern of the larvae population of the yellow rice borer, Tryporyza incertulas, and provide valuable information for its forecast model, the data series of the population for each generation and the over-wintered larvae from 1960 to 1990 in Dingcheng District, Changde City, Hunan Province, were analyzed with geostatistics. The data series of total number, the 1st generation, the 3rd generation and the over-wintered larvae year to year displayed rather better autocorrelation and prediction. The data series of generation to generation, the 2nd generation and the 4th generation year to year, however, demonstrated poor autocorrelation, especially for the 4th generation, whose autocorrelation degree was zero. The population dynamics of the yellow rice borer was obviously intermittent. A remarkable cycle of four generations, one year, was observed in the population of generation to generation. Omitting the certain generation or interposing the over-wintered larvae only resulted in a less or slight change of autocorrelation of the whole data series generation to generation. Crop system, food, climate and natural enemies, therefore, played more important roles in regulating the population dynamics than base number of the larvae. The basic techniques of geostatistics applied in analyzing temporal population dynamics were outlined.

关键词: Tryporyza incertulas, geostatistics, temporal patterns, population, forecast