Rice Science ›› 2025, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 845-856.DOI: 10.1016/j.rsci.2025.09.001
收稿日期:2025-05-06
接受日期:2025-07-20
出版日期:2025-11-28
发布日期:2025-12-04
. [J]. Rice Science, 2025, 32(6): 845-856.
| Parameter | 1979 (V1) | 1988 (V2) | 2000 (V3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base temperature (ºC) | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upper temperature (ºC) | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Soil water depletion factor for canopy expansion: Lower threshold | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Crop coefficient | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.25 |
| Number of plants per hectare | 206 667 | 205 761 | 206 667 |
| Coefficient for canopy growth | 0.133 | 0.133 | 0.132 |
| Coefficient for canopy decline (in fraction per day) | 0.038 | 0.038 | 0.038 |
| Maximum canopy cover in fraction soil cover | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.95 |
| Days from transplanting to maximum canopy cover (d) | 52 | 52 | 50 |
| Days from transplanting to recovery (d) | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Days from transplanting to maximum rooting depth (d) | 61 | 61 | 59 |
| Days from transplanting to senescence (d) | 79 | 85 | 92 |
| Days from transplanting to maturity (d) | 125 | 115 | 115 |
| Days from transplanting to flowering (d) | 65 | 67 | 63 |
| Flowering duration (d) | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| Water productivity normalized for evapotranspiration and CO2 (g/m2) | 16.5 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Reference harvest index in percent (%) | 41 | 43 | 41 |
Table 1. Parameters calibrated for growing seasons of 1979, 1988, and 2000.
| Parameter | 1979 (V1) | 1988 (V2) | 2000 (V3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base temperature (ºC) | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upper temperature (ºC) | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Soil water depletion factor for canopy expansion: Lower threshold | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Crop coefficient | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.25 |
| Number of plants per hectare | 206 667 | 205 761 | 206 667 |
| Coefficient for canopy growth | 0.133 | 0.133 | 0.132 |
| Coefficient for canopy decline (in fraction per day) | 0.038 | 0.038 | 0.038 |
| Maximum canopy cover in fraction soil cover | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.95 |
| Days from transplanting to maximum canopy cover (d) | 52 | 52 | 50 |
| Days from transplanting to recovery (d) | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Days from transplanting to maximum rooting depth (d) | 61 | 61 | 59 |
| Days from transplanting to senescence (d) | 79 | 85 | 92 |
| Days from transplanting to maturity (d) | 125 | 115 | 115 |
| Days from transplanting to flowering (d) | 65 | 67 | 63 |
| Flowering duration (d) | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| Water productivity normalized for evapotranspiration and CO2 (g/m2) | 16.5 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Reference harvest index in percent (%) | 41 | 43 | 41 |
Fig. 1. Calibration and validation of canopy cover for growing seasons of 1979 (Plot A), 1979 (Plot B), 1988, 1990, 2000 (Plot A), and 2000 (Plot B).
| Parameter | Biomass (t/hm2) | Canopy cover (%) | Surface water (mm) | Biomass (t/hm2) | Canopy cover (%) | Surface water (mm) | Biomass (t/hm2) | Canopy cover (%) | Surface water (mm) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 (Plot A) | 1988 | 2000 (Plot A) | |||||||||
| Calibration | |||||||||||
| Pearson ® | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.81 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | ||
| RMSE | 0.63 | 2.40 | 15.21 | 0.54 | 2.40 | 8.53 | 0.91 | 1.70 | 12.71 | ||
| RMSEn (%) | 7.40 | 2.60 | 20.50 | 7.30 | 2.50 | 22.63 | 9.80 | 1.90 | 26.50 | ||
| Model efficiency | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.61 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.69 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0.74 | ||
| Agreement index | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.94 | ||
| Average observed | 8.52 | 0.94 | 79.37 | 7.45 | 0.96 | 37.68 | 9.24 | 0.91 | 47.92 | ||
| Average simulated | 8.12 | 0.94 | 74.07 | 7.64 | 0.95 | 35.86 | 9.18 | 0.92 | 42.80 | ||
| 1979 (Plot B) | 1990 | 2000 (Plot B) | |||||||||
| Validation | |||||||||||
| Pearson ® | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.76 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.76 | ||
| RMSE | 0.76 | 2.00 | 17.60 | 1.13 | 3.90 | 14.13 | 0.99 | 2.30 | 12.50 | ||
| RMSEn (%) | 9.10 | 2.10 | 18.96 | 15.30 | 4.20 | 20.17 | 10.90 | 2.50 | 52.28 | ||
| Model efficiency | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.48 | 0.94 | 0.76 | 0.58 | 0.97 | 0.80 | 0.72 | ||
| Agreement index | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | ||
| Average observed | 8.36 | 93.20 | 92.80 | 7.38 | 92.70 | 70.09 | 9.04 | 90.50 | 25.94 | ||
| Average simulated | 7.63 | 93.70 | 92.46 | 6.34 | 91.50 | 72.24 | 8.68 | 91.30 | 22.11 | ||
Table 2. Calibration of years 1979 (Plot A), 1988, and 2000 (Plot A), and validation of years 1979 (Plot B), 1990, and 2000 (Plot B).
| Parameter | Biomass (t/hm2) | Canopy cover (%) | Surface water (mm) | Biomass (t/hm2) | Canopy cover (%) | Surface water (mm) | Biomass (t/hm2) | Canopy cover (%) | Surface water (mm) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 (Plot A) | 1988 | 2000 (Plot A) | |||||||||
| Calibration | |||||||||||
| Pearson ® | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.81 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | ||
| RMSE | 0.63 | 2.40 | 15.21 | 0.54 | 2.40 | 8.53 | 0.91 | 1.70 | 12.71 | ||
| RMSEn (%) | 7.40 | 2.60 | 20.50 | 7.30 | 2.50 | 22.63 | 9.80 | 1.90 | 26.50 | ||
| Model efficiency | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.61 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.69 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0.74 | ||
| Agreement index | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.94 | ||
| Average observed | 8.52 | 0.94 | 79.37 | 7.45 | 0.96 | 37.68 | 9.24 | 0.91 | 47.92 | ||
| Average simulated | 8.12 | 0.94 | 74.07 | 7.64 | 0.95 | 35.86 | 9.18 | 0.92 | 42.80 | ||
| 1979 (Plot B) | 1990 | 2000 (Plot B) | |||||||||
| Validation | |||||||||||
| Pearson ® | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.76 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.76 | ||
| RMSE | 0.76 | 2.00 | 17.60 | 1.13 | 3.90 | 14.13 | 0.99 | 2.30 | 12.50 | ||
| RMSEn (%) | 9.10 | 2.10 | 18.96 | 15.30 | 4.20 | 20.17 | 10.90 | 2.50 | 52.28 | ||
| Model efficiency | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.48 | 0.94 | 0.76 | 0.58 | 0.97 | 0.80 | 0.72 | ||
| Agreement index | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | ||
| Average observed | 8.36 | 93.20 | 92.80 | 7.38 | 92.70 | 70.09 | 9.04 | 90.50 | 25.94 | ||
| Average simulated | 7.63 | 93.70 | 92.46 | 6.34 | 91.50 | 72.24 | 8.68 | 91.30 | 22.11 | ||
Fig. 2. Calibration and validation of above-ground biomass for growing seasons of 1979 (Plot A), 1979 (Plot B), 1988, 1990, 2000 (Plot A), and 2000 (Plot B).
Fig. 3. Calibration and validation of surface water for 1979 (A and B), 1988 (C), 1990 (D), and 2000 (E and F).
Fig. 4. Trends in above-ground biomass (A), grain yield (B), and water productivity (C) from 1979 to 2015 under continuous flooding irrigation.
| Variety | Parameter | Total change | Climate change | Percentage of climate change (%) | Variety change | Percentage of variety change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V3‒V1 | Biomass (t/hm2) | 5.65 | 3.43 | 61.00 | 2.22 | 39.33 |
| Grain yield (t/hm2) | 2.49 | 1.43 | 57.57 | 1.06 | 42.43 | |
| WPet (kg/m3) | 0.55 | 0.41 | 75.58 | 0.13 | 24.42 | |
| V3‒V2 | Biomass (t/hm2) | 4.85 | 2.58 | 53.23 | 2.27 | 46.77 |
| Grain yield (t/hm2) | 1.67 | 1.08 | 64.32 | 0.60 | 35.68 | |
| WPet (kg/m3) | 0.28 | 0.27 | 94.48 | 0.02 | 5.52 |
Table 3. Bifurcation of climate and variety contributions in biomass, grain yield, and water productivity (WPet).
| Variety | Parameter | Total change | Climate change | Percentage of climate change (%) | Variety change | Percentage of variety change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V3‒V1 | Biomass (t/hm2) | 5.65 | 3.43 | 61.00 | 2.22 | 39.33 |
| Grain yield (t/hm2) | 2.49 | 1.43 | 57.57 | 1.06 | 42.43 | |
| WPet (kg/m3) | 0.55 | 0.41 | 75.58 | 0.13 | 24.42 | |
| V3‒V2 | Biomass (t/hm2) | 4.85 | 2.58 | 53.23 | 2.27 | 46.77 |
| Grain yield (t/hm2) | 1.67 | 1.08 | 64.32 | 0.60 | 35.68 | |
| WPet (kg/m3) | 0.28 | 0.27 | 94.48 | 0.02 | 5.52 |
Fig. 5. Performance of variety V1 under continuous flooding (CF) (A, C, and E) and alternate wetting and drying (AWD) (B, D, and F) conditions at five transplanting dates. Biomass, grain yield, and water productivity (WPet) are shown as boxplots to compare irrigation and timing effects.
Fig. 6. Performance of variety V2 under continuous flooding (CF) (A, C, and E) and alternate wetting and drying (AWD) (B, D, and F) conditions at five transplanting dates. Biomass, grain yield, and water productivity (WPet) are shown as boxplots to compare irrigation and timing effects.
Fig. 7. Performance of variety V3 under continuous flooding (CF) (A, C, and E) and alternate wetting and drying (AWD) (B, D, and F) conditions at five transplanting dates. Biomass, grain yield, and water productivity (WPet) are shown as boxplots to compare irrigation and timing effects.
Fig. 8. Schematic diagram of AquaCrop model. CF, Continuous flooding; AWD, Alternate wetting and drying.
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